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for hagerstown and martinsburg tomorrow

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weather forecasters use them to create

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the nightly weather report

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airline pilots use them to learn how to

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fly planes

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experts use them in virtually every

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industry and discipline

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their computer models

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at nasa scientists use computer models

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to enhance their understanding of the

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earth

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immense amounts of data back to

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scientists on the ground who can then

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enter that data into computer model

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simulations

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we have then equations and then we have

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computer code which solves those

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equations on a day-to-day basis

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nasa is the source for most of the

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research satellite observations of the

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atmosphere land and oceans

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so the nasa scientists will look at the

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observational data and

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make theoretical projections of what a

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model might look like and they will

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build a numerical model

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based on the data and then run that on

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our computers and then compare that to

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reality

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with rapid increases in computer

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technology models are becoming ever more

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powerful and sophisticated allowing us

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to simulate our complex environment in

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greater detail

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nasa uses a variety of weather models

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such as the goddard earth observing

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system model or geos-5

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it creates an extraordinarily high

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resolution realistic looking view of our

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atmosphere

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these geos5 simulations showcase the

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model's ability to capture fine-scale

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cloud features worldwide

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like the swirling clouds in the atlantic

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the goal of weather models is to give

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the most accurate prediction of weather

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in 2005 when hurricane katrina formed

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over the atlantic ocean scientists

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wanted to understand the storm

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how intense was it what was its size and

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structure and what would be its final

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path

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nasa satellites continuously monitored

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many aspects of the storm from wind

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speed rainfall and sea surface

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temperature to the storm's

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three-dimensional structure

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to get a more complete picture of the

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storm and predict its evolution

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scientists entered the data into a

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computer model

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then high-powered supercomputers capable

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of trillions of calculations per second

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crunch the numbers this process is

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called data assimilation

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data assimilation is a two-step cycle

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that repeats itself whenever new data

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becomes available

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in the first step the model runs forward

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in time to provide an estimate of the

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atmosphere in the second step this

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estimate gets corrected using

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observations

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and the cycle begins again each step

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building upon the last and accumulating

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the information from satellite and

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ground observations

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weather models are updated every 6 hours

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to include the most current observations

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for the next forecast this approach

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prevents the model from straying too far

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from reality and acts as a checks and

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balance system to achieve the most

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while weather models predict conditions

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for up to 10 days climate models predict

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trends over much longer periods of time

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the climate models that are run at the

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nccs are numerical expressions of the

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various processes that make up the

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climate this includes things like land

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surface movement of water in the ocean

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and the movement of air in the

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atmosphere

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just as in weather prediction data

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assimilation is a way of bringing all

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the observations of the earth together

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to provide an analysis of our climate

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one example of this technique is mera

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the modern era retrospective analysis

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for research and application

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mera incorporates data from the entire

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satellite record over 30 years of data

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its results are a data encyclopedia that

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can be used for research and

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mera can help meteorologists understand

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the variations associated with specific

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weather events in the past

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while mera gives us a climate picture

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across decades the goddard institute for

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space studies or gis can extend that

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view across centuries

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gis models have already unraveled

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average temperature trends over 200

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years

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nuc simulations will cover the last 1

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000 years to verify the model's accuracy

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they'll also look forward projecting

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climate trends to the end of the 21st

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century

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with each satellite launched we gain

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millions of measurements that tell us

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more about our planet

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having so much more data will require

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increases in computing power to

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synthesize this information into

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meaningful representations of the

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climate system as a whole

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at goddard space flight center we have a

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tremendous amount of observational data

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which is captured by our satellites we

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have probably the largest collection of

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earth scientists anywhere in the world

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and we have this new state-of-the-art

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computing center so the combination of

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the scientists the data and the

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computing puts us in a unique position